Who will win the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?

Started Jan 03, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 03, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for 3 February 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates, reported as "state delegate equivalents" in Iowa (Des Moines Register). In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most final votes will be considered the winner.

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The question closed "Pete Buttigieg" with a closing date of 3 February 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Joe Biden 37%
Pete Buttigieg 11%
Bernie Sanders 42%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 313
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 624
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.797
2.
-0.704
3.
-0.623
4.
-0.459
5.
-0.427

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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