Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?

Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

A lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia is becoming an issue of increasing concern (BBC, CNN, NPR, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Saudi Arabia's military forces include the General Directorate of Border Guard. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1374
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 2208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.111
2.
-0.111
3.
-0.111
4.
-0.111
5.
-0.111

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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