Started Jan 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 20, 2020 06:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).

NOTE 17 February 2020: As WHO has begun reporting both "laboratory-confirmed" and "clinically diagnosed" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the 17 February Situation Report.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "More than 200,000" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (WHO).

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Answer was incorrect
Answer was incorrect
Answer was incorrect
Answer was incorrect
Answer was correct

Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.389
2.
-0.362
4.
-0.344
5.
-0.34