Started Jan 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 20, 2020 06:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (WHO).

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Name Probability
Less than 10,000 8%
Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive 8%
More than 25,000 but less than 100,000 17%
Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive 42%
More than 200,000 25%

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