What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020?
Closed Apr 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 1Q 2019, the index was 106.4, which equates to 6.4% growth. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 1Q 2020 are released, scheduled for April 2020.
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The question closed "Less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 April 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.0% | 99% | |
| Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 4.5% but less than 5.0% | 0% | |
| Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 5.5% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 344 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 739 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
