Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below "Warning - Level 3" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?

On 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) widened its highest travel warning, “Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel,” to include all of China (CDC, Washington Post).

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The question closed "Not before 1 June 2020" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 March 2020 0%
Between 1 March 2020 and 15 April 2020 0%
Between 16 April 2020 and 31 May 2020 0%
Not before 1 June 2020 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 459
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.091
2.
-0.09
3.
-0.086
4.
-0.086
5.
-0.085

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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