Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 27, 2020 03:00AM UTC

San Francisco Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion?

As of the start of the 2019-2020, eleven NBA franchises have never won a championship: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz (NBA). The NBA finals are scheduled to begin on 4 June 2020 (NBA).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

NOTE 6 April 2020: If the 2020 NBA season is canceled, the question will be voided.

NOTE 23 July 2020: The question has been extended through 15 October 2020.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 September 2020. [There was an error in scoring that we are working to address]

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

5%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

277

Forecast
Count

830

Crowd Brier Score

0.0366


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.038
2.
-0.038
3.
-0.037
4.
-0.037