San Francisco Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?
Started
Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 03, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Closed Mar 03, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Fourteen states, one U.S. territory, and "Democrats Abroad" are scheduled to hold their Democratic primaries & caucuses on 3 March 2020, known as "Super Tuesday" (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the majority of pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 March 2020.
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Question clarification
Issued on 02/10/20 04:47pm
For greater clarity, we have changed the More Info to read "...who wins the majority of pledged delegates." The question asks about a majority, not merely a plurality.
For greater clarity, we have changed the More Info to read "...who wins the majority of pledged delegates." The question asks about a majority, not merely a plurality.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 33.00% | |
No | 67.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 338 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 697 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |