San Francisco Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?

Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 03, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Fourteen states, one U.S. territory, and "Democrats Abroad" are scheduled to hold their Democratic primaries & caucuses on 3 March 2020, known as "Super Tuesday" (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the majority of pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 March 2020.

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Question clarification
Issued on 02/10/20 04:47pm
For greater clarity, we have changed the More Info to read "...who wins the majority of pledged delegates." The question asks about a majority, not merely a plurality.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 33.00%
No 67.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 697
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.218
3.
-0.218
4.
-0.217
5.
-0.213

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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