Agriculture Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much of the U.S. corn crop will be planted as of 31 May 2020, according to the USDA?

Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases regular Crop Progress reports with, among other things, a percentage of acreage planted among major corn-producing states (USDA Crop Progress Reports). The outcome will be determined using data for selected states provided in the USDA's Crop Progress report scheduled for release on 1 June 2020 (USDA Release Schedule). As of 2 June 2019, 67% of corn plantings by acre were completed in selected states (USDA 3 June 2019 Crop Progress, see table on page 1).

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The question closed "90% or more" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 70% 0%
Between 70% and 80%, inclusive 0%
More than 80% but less than 90% 0%
90% or more 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 167
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 522
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.6
3.
-0.592
4.
-0.589
5.
-0.583

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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