Agriculture Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How much of the U.S. corn crop will be planted as of 31 May 2020, according to the USDA?
Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases regular Crop Progress reports with, among other things, a percentage of acreage planted among major corn-producing states (USDA Crop Progress Reports). The outcome will be determined using data for selected states provided in the USDA's Crop Progress report scheduled for release on 1 June 2020 (USDA Release Schedule). As of 2 June 2019, 67% of corn plantings by acre were completed in selected states (USDA 3 June 2019 Crop Progress, see table on page 1).
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The question closed "90% or more" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 70% | 0% | |
Between 70% and 80%, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 80% but less than 90% | 0% | |
90% or more | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 167 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 522 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |