Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Agriculture Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much of the U.S. corn crop will be planted as of 31 May 2020, according to the USDA?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases regular Crop Progress reports with, among other things, a percentage of acreage planted among major corn-producing states (USDA Crop Progress Reports). The outcome will be determined using data for selected states provided in the USDA's Crop Progress report scheduled for release on 1 June 2020 (USDA Release Schedule). As of 2 June 2019, 67% of corn plantings by acre were completed in selected states (USDA 3 June 2019 Crop Progress, see table on page 1).

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Name Probability
Less than 70% 19%
Between 70% and 80%, inclusive 21%
More than 80% but less than 90% 34%
90% or more 26%

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