Started Feb 21, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 04, 2020 09:00PM UTC

When will total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) in California reach 25 or more?

The first case of COVID-19 infection in the state of California was confirmed by the CDC on 26 January 2020 (NBC Bay Area, CDC). As of 20 February 2020, there were eight qualifying cases in California (NBC News, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using open source data and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch. Instances of cases in individuals brought from outside the state to be held in quarantine in California would not count.

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The question closed "Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020" with a closing date of 4 March 2020 (CDPH).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 March 2020 0%
Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020 100%
Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020 0%
Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020 0%
Not before 1 June 2020 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 528
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.356
2.
-0.328
3.
-0.302
4.
-0.254
5.
-0.241

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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