Smoothdriving asks:

In its January 2021 World Economic Outlook report, by how much will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the global economy grew in 2020?

Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

In its January 2020 report, the IMF projected global growth to rise 3.3 percent in 2020 (IMF). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has raised questions regarding global economic growth in 2020 and beyond (Reuters, ABC News, NY Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and the outcome will be determined using the IMF's estimate for 2020 in its World Economic Outlook report scheduled to be published in January 2021 (IMF).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "Less than 1.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.5% 100%
Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive 0%
Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive 0%
Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 3.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 576
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007
2.
-0.007
3.
-0.007
4.
-0.007
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username