Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Smoothdriving asks:

In its January 2021 World Economic Outlook report, by how much will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the global economy grew in 2020?

In its January 2020 report, the IMF projected global growth to rise 3.3 percent in 2020 (IMF). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has raised questions regarding global economic growth in 2020 and beyond (Reuters, ABC News, NY Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and the outcome will be determined using the IMF's estimate for 2020 in its World Economic Outlook report scheduled to be published in January 2021 (IMF).

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The question closed "Less than 1.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.5% 100%
Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive 0%
Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive 0%
Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 3.0% 0%

No. of
Forecasters

576

Forecast
Count

1171

Crowd Brier Score

0.0051


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007
2.
-0.007
3.
-0.007
4.
-0.007
5.
-0.006

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