Before 1 January 2021, will Ali Khamenei cease to be the supreme leader of Iran and/or Hassan Rouhani cease to be the president of Iran?
Started
Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Iran has been hit hard by the COVID-19 outbreak, with 9,000 cases reported as of 12 March 2020 (WHO). Already economically weakened and facing new challenges with the price of oil, there is speculation as to whether or not the current government can endure the outbreak (Atlantic, BBC, Washington Post).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, only Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader | 0% | |
| Yes, only Hassan Rouhani will cease to be president | 0% | |
| Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with neither replacing the other | 0% | |
| Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with at least one replacing the other | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 317 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 957 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
