What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?
Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (City A.M., Guardian, Spectator.co.uk). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (Office of National Statistics). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (Office of National Statistics).
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The question closed "Less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.0% | 0% | |
| Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 5.0% but less than 6.0% | 0% | |
| Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive | 19% | |
| More than 7.0% | 81% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 203 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 559 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
