How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?

Started Mar 26, 2020 03:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC

As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 2,696 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for Spain (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (WHO).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "More than 15,000 deaths" with a closing date of 10 April 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 6,000 deaths 0%
Between 6,000 and 9,000 deaths, inclusive 0%
More than 9,000 but less than 12,000 deaths 0%
Between 12,000 and 15,000 deaths, inclusive 0%
More than 15,000 deaths 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 345
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009
2.
-0.009
3.
-0.009
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.009

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username