Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?

Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean Technica, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2020, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (The Mack Institute).

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Name Probability
Less than $115 per kWh 0%
Between $115 and $130 per kWh, inclusive 10%
More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh 82%
Between $145 and $160 per kWh, inclusive 8%
More than $160 per kWh 0%

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