The Mack Institute asks:

How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union in 2020?

Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Smart Energy, Reuters). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory for all of 2020, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2020)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (>22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2020".

This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1634. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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The question closed "More than 22,000 but less than 26,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 18,000 0%
Between 18,000 and 22,000, inclusive 2%
More than 22,000 but less than 26,000 98%
Between 26,000 and 30,000, inclusive 0%
More than 30,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 440
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.233
2.
-0.19
3.
-0.175
4.
-0.172
5.
-0.171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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