Started Apr 13, 2020 02:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?

As of 11 April 2020, three states have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 1 May 2020 as provided on 4 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "More than 13" with a closing date of 1 May 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 0%
Between 5 and 7, inclusive 0%
More than 7 but less than 11 0%
Between 11 and 13, inclusive 16%
More than 13 84%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 255
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 888
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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