For any seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be 200,000 or more combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?
Closed Oct 07, 2020 07:00PM UTC
The status of the COVID-19 outbreak during late 2020 is an open question as experts look into the possible "next waves" (Forbes, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) between 1 October and 31 December 2020 (WHO). For the seven consecutive day period from 1 April 2020 and 7 April 2020, WHO reported 193,171 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 1 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question.
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NOTE 17 August 2020: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (WHO, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (COVID-19 global dashboard). The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 October 2020.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 100.00% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 385 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1530 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |