Question 27 of 33 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Apr 17, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC

For any seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be 200,000 or more combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?


The status of the COVID-19 outbreak during late 2020 is an open question as experts look into the possible "next waves" (Forbes, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) between 1 October and 31 December 2020 (WHO). For the seven consecutive day period from 1 April 2020 and 7 April 2020, WHO reported 193,171 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 1 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question.

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Name Probability
Yes 80%

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