How many states will have reported more total COVID-19 cases for September 2020 than for June 2020?
Started
May 04, 2020 02:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for June 2020 and September 2020 as of 5:00PM ET on Friday 2 October 2020 (The COVID Tracking Project). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are considered states.
Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "44 or more" with a closing date of 29 September 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 4 | 0% | |
Between 4 and 11 | 0% | |
Between 12 and 19 | 0% | |
Between 20 and 27 | 0% | |
Between 28 and 35 | 5% | |
Between 36 and 43 | 67% | |
44 or more | 28% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 614 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 2291 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |