joescusi asks:

Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?

Started May 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

The COVID-19 outbreak has greatly impacted the aviation industry (Barron's, CNBC, CNN). The 18 carriers that were designated in Group III as of 1 January 2020 are listed here: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Bankruptcies by holding companies that wholly own a Group III air carrier would count.

Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 339
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 1256
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.832
3.
-0.812
5.
-0.785

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username