How many countries other than the U.S. and Brazil will have more than one million total confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?

Started Jun 19, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 27, 2020 10:00PM UTC

The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the World Health Organization for 31 December 2020 (WHO Situation Reports, WHO).

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NOTE 17 August 2020: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (WHO, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (COVID-19 global dashboard). The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 December 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.


The question closed "10 or more" with a closing date of 27 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 or 1 0%
2 or 3 0%
4, 5, or 6 0%
7, 8, or 9 0%
10 or more 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 269
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 1797
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.807
2.
-0.783
3.
-0.771
4.
-0.738
5.
-0.69

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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