AlphaBeta9 asks:
How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?
Closed Aug 20, 2020 06:59AM UTC
A mid-June cluster of new COVID-19 cases in Beijing has sparked concerns over a new wave of infections in China (CNN). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 August 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO Situation Reports, WHO). As of 18 June 2020, WHO reported a total of 84,903 confirmed cases.
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NOTE 17 August 2020: Starting on Monday 17 August, the World Health Organization ceased to provide its daily updates via Situation reports (WHO, see first entry under "Highlights") and is directing data users to use its dashboard (COVID-19 global dashboard). The data provided on WHO's "COVID-19 global dashboard" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 20 August 2020 will now be used to resolve this question.
The question closed "More than 88,000 but less than 92,000" with a closing date of 20 August 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 86,000 | 0% | |
| Between 86,000 and 88,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 88,000 but less than 92,000 | 100% | |
| Between 92,000 and 100,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 100,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 154 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1003 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
