When will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 6.0% in the second half of 2020?

Started Jun 26, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The usually default-resistant leveraged loan asset class hit a 6-year high default rate in May 2020, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P Global, Forbes, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Click the tab for "Default Rate" for "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)."

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The question closed "Not before January 2021" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
July 2020 or August 2020 0%
September 2020 or October 2020 0%
November 2020 or December 2020 0%
Not before January 2021 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 459
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.181
2.
-0.172
3.
-0.166
4.
-0.156
5.
-0.154

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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