How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?

Started Jul 02, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "24 or fewer" with a closing date of 31 August 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
24 or fewer 100%
Between 25 and 30 0%
Between 31 and 36 0%
Between 37 and 42 0%
43 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 155
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 712
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.801
2.
-0.743
4.
-0.697
5.
-0.685

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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