On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?

Started Jul 02, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data provided in the chart “How is My State Doing on Key Measures?” under "COVID+ RATE IS" found at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.

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Note 11 August 2020: This question is only concerned with U.S. states. Nonstate jurisdictions (e.g., DC, Puerto Rico) will not count toward resolution.


The question closed "Between 11 and 15" with a closing date of 1 September 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
5 or fewer 0%
Between 6 and 10 0%
Between 11 and 15 99%
Between 16 and 20 1%
21 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 265
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 1007
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.197171
2.
-0.191718
3.
-0.166218
4.
-0.160184
5.
-0.157287

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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