The Mack Institute asks:
How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2020?
Closed Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).
This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1698. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
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The question closed "More than 1,250,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 800,000 | 0% | |
| Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 950,000 but less than 1,100,000 | 0% | |
| Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive | 62% | |
| More than 1,250,000 | 38% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 89 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 302 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
