The Mack Institute asks:

How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?

Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (ReutersShine.cnCNBCInside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive StatisticsCaam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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The question closed "More than 4.0 million" with a closing date of 1 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 2.2 million 0%
Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive 0%
More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million 0%
Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive 18%
More than 4.0 million 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 408
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.549
2.
-0.46
3.
-0.34
4.
-0.339
5.
-0.304

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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