The Mack Institute asks:
How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
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The question closed "More than 4.0 million" with a closing date of 1 March 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 2.2 million | 0% | |
Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million | 0% | |
Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive | 18% | |
More than 4.0 million | 82% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 84 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 408 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |