When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?

Started Jul 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 03, 2020 07:01AM UTC

Texas has seen a major increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since mid-June 2020, with Gov. Greg Abbott warning that the state may have to institute a lockdown to address the jump (CBS News, KXAN). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Texas Department of State Health Services' COVID-19 Test and Hospital data page (TX Dept. of State Health Services). At the bottom of the page, click the "Hospitals - Statewide" tab. Hover your cursor over a column for a date for the exact figure. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas on 11 July 2020 were 10,083.

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The question closed "Not before 4 October 2020" with a closing date of 4 October 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 3 August 2020 0%
Between 3 August 2020 and 23 August 2020 0%
Between 24 August 2020 and 13 September 2020 0%
Between 14 September 2020 and 4 October 2020 0%
Not before 4 October 2020 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1505
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.123
2.
-0.123
3.
-0.122
4.
-0.122
5.
-0.121

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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