SE_Meyer asks:
Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?
Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 169 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 407 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |