Adam Grant asks:

When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?

Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (CNBC, TechCrunch, Starlink). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.

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The question closed "Not before 1 July 2021" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2021 0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 0%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021 0%
Not before 1 July 2021 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 400
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1270
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.104
2.
-0.104
3.
-0.104
4.
-0.103
5.
-0.102

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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