Kinnaj asks:

Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?

Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 14, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (Reuters, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera).

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The question closed "Yoshihide Suga" with a closing date of 13 September 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Taro Aso 0%
Shigeru Ishiba 0%
Fumio Kishida 0%
Taro Kono 0%
Yoshihide Suga 100%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.085919
3.
-0.076981
4.
-0.059681
5.
-0.054531

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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