Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 14, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Kinnaj asks:

Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?

Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (Reuters, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera).

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The question closed "Yoshihide Suga" with a closing date of 13 September 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Taro Aso 0%
Shigeru Ishiba 0%
Fumio Kishida 0%
Taro Kono 0%
Yoshihide Suga 100%
Someone else 0%

No. of
Forecasters

80

Forecast
Count

204

Crowd Brier Score

0.1999


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.086
3.
-0.077
4.
-0.06
5.
-0.055