Tim Harford asks:

When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?

Started Sep 04, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (CNN). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.

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The question closed "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021" with a closing date of 13 June 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2021 0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 0%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021 98%
Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021 2%
Not before 1 October 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 230
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1396
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.268
2.
-0.267
3.
-0.267
4.
-0.26
5.
-0.258

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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