Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?
Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 204 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 577 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |