Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 176
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 475
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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