Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?

As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).

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Name Probability
Less than 2.00% 60%
Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive 36%
More than 4.00% but less than 6.00% 4%
Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 8.00% 0%

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