When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?
Closed Dec 29, 2020 03:24PM UTC
After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft in March 2019 pending further investigations (NPR). While U.S., EU, and Canadian regulators have completed test flights key for recertification, it is not known when commercial flights will resume (ABC News, CNN, FAA).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
NOTE 12 October 2020: For the purposes of this question, "commercial flights" are flights with ticketed passengers. Cargo only flights would not count.
The question closed "Before 31 December 2020" with a closing date of 29 December 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 31 December 2020 | 99% | |
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 | 1% | |
Not before 1 April 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 82 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 367 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |