When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?

Started Oct 09, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2020 03:24PM UTC
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After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft in March 2019 pending further investigations (NPR). While U.S., EU, and Canadian regulators have completed test flights key for recertification, it is not known when commercial flights will resume (ABC News, CNN, FAA).

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NOTE 12 October 2020: For the purposes of this question, "commercial flights" are flights with ticketed passengers. Cargo only flights would not count.


The question closed "Before 31 December 2020" with a closing date of 29 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 31 December 2020 99%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 1%
Not before 1 April 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.374
2.
-0.288
3.
-0.274
4.
-0.211
5.
-0.202

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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