How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?
Closed Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 December 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 8 October 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
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NOTE 22 December 2020: Data depicted on the main chart at rt.live as of approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 December 2020 will be used to determine the outcome of this question.
The question closed "Between 31 and 36" with a closing date of 31 December 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 24 or fewer | 27% | |
| Between 25 and 30 | 36% | |
| Between 31 and 36 | 37% | |
| Between 37 and 42 | 0% | |
| 43 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 104 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 739 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
