Question 3 of 29 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Oct 09, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC

How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?


The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" ( The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 December 2020 at As of 8 October 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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Name Probability
24 or fewer 0%
Between 25 and 30 3%
Between 31 and 36 22%
Between 37 and 42 47%
43 or more 28%

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