Question 3 of 29 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Oct 09, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC

How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?

Tags
Health  
Challenges

The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 December 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 8 October 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
24 or fewer 0%
Between 25 and 30 3%
Between 31 and 36 22%
Between 37 and 42 47%
43 or more 28%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In