When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?

Started Oct 09, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2020 07:00PM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for "Daily Counts," select "7-day average cases." The 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NYC last reached 1,500 on 5 May 2020. This question would resolve as of the date for which 1,500 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 7 March 2021.

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The question closed "Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020" with a closing date of 21 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 November 2020 0%
Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020 95%
Between 1 December 2020 and 31 December 2020 5%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2021 0%
Not before 1 February 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 487
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.446
3.
-0.433
4.
-0.406
5.
-0.394

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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