Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

107

Forecast
Count

328

Crowd Brier Score

0.0062


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011
3.
-0.01
5.
-0.01

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