Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 328
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011
4.
-0.01
5.
-0.01

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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