How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?

Started Oct 23, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC

As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India (France24). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "7 or 8" with a closing date of 30 April 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
3 0%
4 0%
5 or 6 0%
7 or 8 100%
9 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 290
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1685
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.305
2.
-0.285
3.
-0.254
4.
-0.248
5.
-0.247

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username