Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

266

Forecast
Count

584

Crowd Brier Score

0.0119


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.008
3.
-0.008
4.
-0.008
5.
-0.008

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username