When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?

Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 05, 2021 09:48AM UTC

Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent (Economist, Guardian). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).

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The question closed "Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021" with a closing date of 5 February 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2021 0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021 100%
Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021 0%
Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 0%
Not before 1 July 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 382
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.267
2.
-0.256
3.
-0.206
4.
-0.202
5.
-0.178

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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