The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?

Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on (Economist, FDA, FDA).

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The question closed "3" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 0%
1 0%
2 0%
3 100%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 640
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1938
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121
2.
-0.113
3.
-0.111
5.
-0.108

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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