Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?

As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (Economist). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (Tesla Q1 2020, Tesla Q2 2020). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 150,000 0%
Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive 1%
More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000 26%
350,000 or more 73%

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