The Economist asks:

Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?

Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (ONS, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.

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NOTE 17 May 2021: ONS has rearranged its relevant pages for this question. As of now, you may find the pertinent data in the following links:

Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators (reports out Thursdays): https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/economicactivityandsocialchangeintheukrealtimeindicators/previousReleases

Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain (reports out Fridays): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/14may2021

Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain (data file download): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/datasets/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritaindata


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 June 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.00%
No 97.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 949
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.473
3.
-0.436
4.
-0.427
5.
-0.424

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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