Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (Economist, IMF - June 2020, World Economic Forum). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report (IMF - October 2020).


The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 6 April 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

99%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

219

Forecast
Count

511

Crowd Brier Score

0.0638


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.071
2.
-0.071
3.
-0.071
4.
-0.071

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username