Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?
Closed Jul 03, 2021 10:00PM UTC
While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (CNN, CDC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
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NOTE 12 April 2021: Simulated or shakedown "cruises" would not count.
The question closed "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021" with a closing date of 3 July 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 April 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 April and 30 June 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 July and 30 September 2021 | 99% | |
| Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021 | 1% | |
| Not before 1 January 2022 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 114 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 486 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
